Chiefs vs Colts : odds, line 2019 NFL divisional round picks and best playoff predictions from model on 16-6 run . SportsLine’s advanced computer model simulated Saturday’s Chiefs vs. Colts game 10,000 times…Considering that the Indianapolis Colts had to sneak into the 2019 NFL Playoffs on the last day of the season, while the Kansas City Chiefs have been one of the NFL’s best from start to finish,
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you’d think that Saturday’s AFC Divisional Round game between the Nos. 1 and 6 seeds might be one-sided. However, Indianapolis is red-hot and sports books are expecting a game. Kansas City is favored by 5.5, with the total at 57 in the latest Chiefs vs. Colts odds. Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomesand Colts veteran signal caller Andrew Luck have been two of the best at their position, so expect plenty of fireworks in the first game of the NFL Divisional schedule at 4:35 p.m. ET. Before you make any Chiefs vs. Colts picks, be sure to check out the NFL playoff predictions from SportsLine’s Projection Model.
The advanced computer model simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, and those who have followed it have seen massive returns. SportsLine’s proprietary computer model went 176-80 last season and beat over 95 percent of CBS Office Pool players in 2016 and ’17. It also performed better than 98 percent of experts tracked by NFLPickWatch.com during that span. Additionally, it went 48-34 on A-rated picks against the spread last season, and $100 bettors who followed it the past two seasons are up nearly $4,000.
The model has continued to nail its top-rated picks in 2018-19, entering the divisional round on a blistering 16-6 run. For the season, it is now 30-15 on all top-rated picks, extending its two-year run to a strong 78-49. It also went 170-84 on straight-up NFL picks during the regular season, ranking inside the top 10 on NFLPickWatch.com. Additionally, it hit all four NFL against-the-spread picks on Wild Card Weekend. Anyone who has followed it is way up.
Now the model has dialed in on Colts vs. Chiefs (stream live on fuboTV). We can tell you it’s leaning under, but it has also generated a strong point-spread pick that’s hitting nearly 60 percent of the time. You can only see that one over at SportsLine.
The model knows that the Chiefs should benefit greatly from the bye week. Kansas City sprinted out to a blistering 9-1 start to the season, but looked more beatable down the stretch, losing three of its final six and two of the last three. Those losses came against playoff teams like the Chargers, Rams, and Seahawks.
Injuries were a big factor in that, and the week off should give several key players a chance to return at closer to 100 percent. Receiver Sammy Watkins (foot) has a chance to play for the first time since Week 11, while safety Eric Berry (heel) and running back Spencer Ware (hamstring) are also important players who will benefit from time off. A full strength Chiefs team will allow Mahomes to flourish in the NFL Playoffs 2019.
But just because Kansas City is getting healthier doesn’t mean it will cover the Chiefs vs. Colts spread on Saturday.
The model also knows that Luck is the heart and soul of the Colts, and his play has been impressive after battling through shoulder injuries the last two seasons. However, coordinator Matt Eberflus’ turnaround of the Colts’ defense is a major part of why they’ve made it this far as well.
After ranking 30th in the NFL in scoring defense and total defense in 2017, the Colts were 10th in points allowed and 11th in total defense in 2018. Rookie linebacker Darius Leonard has been at the center of it all, earning first-team All-Pro honors with 163 total tackles, 12 tackles for loss, seven sacks, four forced fumbles, two fumble recoveries and two interceptions.
Leonard was all over the field again during Wild Card Weekend in Indy’s 21-7 win over the Texans, making 13 tackles and deflecting a pass. Leonard’s ability to impact the game in coverage, as a run-stopper, as a pass-rusher and as a turnover-creator could be key to disrupting the high-powered Chiefs offense just enough to let Luck and the Colts outscore Kansas City on Saturday.
Who wins Colts vs. Chiefs? And which side of the spread hits in nearly 60 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Colts vs. Chiefs spread you need to be all over Saturday, all from the incredible computer model that has returned nearly $4,000 to $100 bettors.